by Dave Mest Jr.
Week 4 Preview 9/30/12
Welcome back to the NFL Depot! I’m your host Dave Mest! As we roll into week 4, more like a real bad limp in my case, we have our top two games of the week. I also have my remaining pick em’ picks, as well as my running totals.
As always, we have Tarn’s corner. With Tarn’s top five plays of the week. We will also have Bay’s Fantasy pick up of the week as well.
So let’s hit the tag line……Let’s get to it!
We start things out with my top two games of the week. I’m hoping to make a major rebound this week, as last week was a bit of a blood bath for me going 5-10, a worst for me.
N.Y. Giants vs. Philadelphia (8:20 Sun night): Both teams sit atop the NFC East, in a three way tie with Dallas. These games are usually a war, so I expect nothing less of this game.
The Giants roll into this game on a major high, after they took a part the Panthers last Thursday night.
The Eagles come limping into this game, after a sound defeat at the hands of the Arizona Cardinals, for the Eagles first loss of the season. But, records mean nothing in this rivalry, and I expect nothing less of this week’s game.
The Giants are going to have to get physical with the Eagles, run the ball hard, force them off the line of scrimmage, and keep the Eagles guessing with balance. Because, Eli Manning is going to be short Hakeem Nicks, other receivers on this roster have to step up their games to fill the void, left by Nicks.
On the other side of the ball, the defense has to account for LeSean McCoy at all times. The Eagles, on the other hand, can’t let Eli Manning get into a rhythm.
The Eagles have to get Mike Vick going early, let him make some easy passes, and build off of that. But, LeSean McCoy is the key; he should see 25 to 30 touches, if the Eagles want to win this game.
Top Two Keys to Victory: 1. The Eagles defense has to make plays early, keep the Giants in 3rd and longs, force the action, make Eli Manning throw on the run, and off balance. Most important, the Eagles have to stop the run. 2. The Giants have to Key on McCoy. Because, you take away McCoy, now you force Vick to beat you, and Vick is mistake prone of late.
Dave’s Take: These games are usually a hard pick, but I liked what I saw out of the Giants, late in last week’s win. I think it’s going to be a battle, but I see the Giants coming out on top. 27-24 Giants.
Minnesota vs. Detroit (1:00): Another division rivalry makes my top games of the week, as I said before; I love in division football games.
When I first looked at the NFL schedule, there was no way I had both teams with the records they have, Vikings 2-1 and Lions 1-2.
I thought the Lions would come out hot, and the Vikings would be 0-3, and in the pits of the NFC north. The Vikings have gotten it done with a strong run game, and a stiff defense, plus Christian Ponder has done just enough to keep defenses off-balance.
The Lions have looked good on offense, but their defense has been anything but good. As seen last week, the Lions had trouble with the Tennessee offense. The Lions had better fixed some things, because Ponder is a lot like Jake Locker, both very mobile, and can throw on the run.
The Lions need to push ball control, run the ball a little more; they showed they can do so with Mikel Leshoure, last week. With ball control, the big plays will still be there for Calvin Johnson, but will take some pressure off Matthew Stafford, after a leg injury last week.
Top Two Keys to Victory: 1. Minnesota needs to key on Calvin Johnson, force Stafford to his 2nd, 3rd or 4th option. The Vikings need to force Stafford’s hand, bring pressure force him out of the pocket, rattle him as much as they can, he will throw interceptions. 2. The Lions need to key on Adrian Peterson, stack the box, force the second year QB (Ponder), and beat you. The Lions want to force Ponder down field, take away the screen to Peterson, and Harvin, make Ponder go through his reads.
Dave’s Take: Just like Giants, Eagles the Vikings, Lions games are usually hard fought games. I see this being “one of those games”, but I see the Vikings edging this one out. 23-21 Vikings
Now on to the rest of my pick em’ games. After going a very bad 5-10 last week, 22-25 over all I’m hoping to bounce back strong this week.
Carolina @ Atlanta (1:00) 28-23 Falcons
New England @ Buffalo (1:00) 24-16 Pats
San Diego @ Kansas City (1:00) 20-17 Chiefs
Seattle @ St. Louis (1:00) 21-17 Seahawks
San Francisco @ N.Y. Jets (1:00) 28-16 49’ers
Tennessee @ Houston (1:00) 24-21 Texans
Cincinnati @ Jacksonville (4:05) 23-20 Bengals
Oakland @ Denver (4:05) 28-17 Broncos
New Orleans @ Green Bay (4:25) 34-28 Packers
Washington @ Tampa Bay (4:25) 24-20 Bucs
Chicago @ Dallas (8:30 Mon night) 21-17 Cowboys
Now on to Tarn’s corner. Tarn went 2-3-1 last week, 9-7-2 overall for the year. We have Tarn’s top 5 plays of the week.
1. Minnesota @ Detroit Over/Under 47 Tarn says take the over
2. Oakland @ Denver Over/Under 48 Tarn says take the over
3. New Orleans @ Green Bay Over/Under 53 Tarn says take the over
4. Washington @ Tampa Bay Over/Under Tarn says take the over
5. San Francisco @ N.Y. Jets Over/Under Tarn says take the over
Now we wrap things up with Bay’s Fantasy Pick up/play of the week. Bay says Add Andy Dalton, QB Cincinnati.
Well that wraps up another week here at the Depot. But, before we go, I would like to take a second, and thank the NFL Brass, for finally getting the Officials signed for to a long term deal. Thank God, no more Scab Refs! Till next time…..See Ya!
You can reach me on Facebook David Mest Jr or on Twitter @blitzburgh6
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